Seize the Day

The coronavirus is possibly the most significant disruptor to companies in the automotive aftermarket repair industries that you’ll experience in your lifetime. It’s solely up to you and your business associates to navigate the turmoil it has caused. How your business survives this black swan event will be determined by how well you can develop new strategies that will benefit your company.

It’s interesting to see how some market leaders in automotive aftermarket repair segments have completely pulled budgeted advertising spend in the face of an 18.6% decrease in miles driven in March 2020 versus March 2019, as reported by the U.S. Department of Transportation – Federal Highway Administration.

During business downturns, historically, companies that continue to keep their marketing and sales strategies in play often capture market share from companies that dramatically reduce spending in those areas. Marketing, advertising, and sales costs are often the easiest to slow or stop completely and then restart.

If you’ve been unable to match the typical spend of the market leader you compete against during good times, that doesn’t mean that you can’t make an impact with potential customers and be known as someone who stepped up long after the market leader restarts marketing spend for attention.

Don’t sit back and wait for your company to recover from the coronavirus downturn; make sure that you, your company, and your personnel are participating in activities that help your community weather this storm. Be sure that you’re seen in the community as someone willing to step up and help others in need. That could be volunteering time and work in the market you serve, offering to deliver meals to healthcare workers, first responders, charities, or offer special discounts for healthcare workers who use your services.

Now is not the time to wait and see what happens. Now is the time to be seen as someone in your city that everyone can count on in difficult times. If you do that, not only will it make you feel good, but it should provide your business with the benefit of new opportunities when we return to normal.

Just Sayin’

Photo by Edwin Hooper on Unsplash

What Will Winter 2019 – 2020 Bring?

If you read the recent “Farmers’ Almanac’s Extended Forecast 2020” article on the outlook for the coming Winter in North America you’d have seen that it’s predicted to be what the self-proclaimed provider of “perception, experience, and common sense” is calling a “Polar Coaster”. Their forecast for this Winter anticipates that we will experience bitter cold from the Rockies to the Appalachians. A forecast likes this tends to be great news for the retail automotive aftermarket as weather extremes are a key driver whether you’re in the Emergency Roadside Service (ERS) industry or the auto glass repair and replacement (AGRR) industry.

For 201 years the Farmers’ Almanac has been providing seasonal weather predictions and this Winter the worst areas for cold and snow include the Northern Plains, Great Lakes Region all the way to the Northeast. The prediction indicates that the worst weather could take place from late January through early February.

Winter weather often brings feast or famine to the automotive aftermarket depending on whether it’s a colder or warmer season. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a manufacturer of products used by the automotive industry’s that operate in the aftermarket, a company distributing replacement parts into markets across North America or a retailer providing services to the end user, the spikes in opportunities that cold weather extremes bring includes probable logistical and supply issues. Potential issues that extreme cold, ice and snow brings can include keeping plants open and fulfilling increased parts orders, keeping delivery vehicles on the road getting those products to the retailers who also have to deal with scheduling repairs that come along with the increased opportunities.

With the current historically low unemployment rates that we’re seeing across North America an extreme Winter also will bring additional stress due to difficulties finding those qualified to manufacture, distribute and provide repairs that consumers and businesses alike will require. Currently there are numerous examples of difficulty finding and keeping qualified technicians in both the AGRR and ERS industry’s. In the AGRR industry a glass repair or replacement can often be deferred for some period of time, but weather extremes effect on automotive batteries will drive volume spikes in jump starts and replacement opportunities putting strains on companies that provide services in the ERS space.

So if the Farmers’ Almanac prediction turns out to be accurate for Winter 2019 – 2020, has your company planned and prepared its best so that you can take care of your customers parts and service needs? Those who have done the best job planning before any extreme cold, ice and snow appears will be the ones able to capitalize on the opportunities that are available.

Just sayin’.

 

* Photo by Vel Vesa on Unsplash

The New Normal

Today the competitive landscape in the auto glass repair and replacement (AGRR) industry in the United States was dramatically altered. We saw this morning an announcement that Safelite, the largest company in the space, purchased the second largest company. As the clear market leader Safelite was perhaps 14+ times or so larger than TruRoad Holdings. By acquiring the companies that make up TruRoad and bringing them into the Safelite platform the gulf between Safelite and the possible number two AGRR company Glass America is even more gigantic.

You’d have to believe that auto insurers, fleets and even consumers would have a strong interest in ensuring that competition continues to exist for AGRR services. Insurers and fleets especially would have interest in seeing a strong national competitor emerge to keep pricing and service levels in check considering the market share Safelite controls. The prospect of building a true competitor and all that would be required to compete against Safelite in the marketplace would be an incredibly daunting task and in my opinion is highly unlikely considering the new competitive landscape in the AGRR space with Safelite acquiring TruRoad.

Baseball player and coach Yogi Berra was once quoted as saying when asked about the chances of the New York Yankees winning a pennant race one year, “It ain’t over til it’s over.” I’m sorry to say that competition in the AGRR space might be over. Welcome to the new normal.

Just sayin’

The Effect of ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance System) to the Automotive Repair Industry

If you’re part of the automotive aftermarket repair industry you’ll find interesting an article titled “Car Safety Systems That Could Save Your Life” written by Mike Monticello (@MikeMonticello) for Consumer Reports. The article detailed a Consumer Reports study on vehicles with ADAS technology onboard and the effect it could have on your business. The study reported that, “ A majority—57 percent—reported that at least one advanced driver-assist feature in their vehicle had kept them from getting into a crash.” Considering that the study involved 72,000 vehicles the potential impact on the automotive repair industry in the years to come could be dramatic.

Mitchell International, an organization providing technology solutions to the insurance industry as well as automotive repair industry, reports that during the first quarter of 2018 the average gross collision appraisal value showed that the average cost of collision repairs was $3,512. When you then consider the Consumer Reports study showing that 57 percent of vehicles with ADAS technology managed to avoid a collision equates to 41,040 fewer vehicles needing repairs. The lost repair value would result in a revenue loss to the collision repair industry of $ 144,132,480. An amazing number considering the small overall size of the Consumer Reports sampling. Imagine the effect this lost revenue will have on the companies that supply the body parts, paints, auto glass and mechanical parts to the collision repair industry.

The Consumer Reports article goes on to explain that “48 percent for the 2019 model year, according to data compiled by Shawn Sinclair, CR’s automotive engineer for advanced driver assistance systems” have automatic emergency braking (AEB) systems. In 2018 “only 29 percent of new vehicle modes sold in the U.S. in 2018 had standard AEB”. Within the next few years it is expected that the majority of OEM car manufacturers will include basic AEB ADAS technology on new vehicles. Granted it will take a number of years for the automotive repair industry to feel the full effect of ADAS technology across the entire United States car parc of 289 million vehicles, especially with the average age of a vehicle in the United States at 11.8 years as reported by the web site statista. IBISWorld.com estimates that total United States collision industry revenues in 2018 totaled $ 47 billion.

You can just do the math to see what the ultimate effect of ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance System) technology across the entire car parc will have to the collision repair segment of the automotive repair industry. The effect to the companies that supply parts and services will also be just as dramatic. What is your company’s strategy to deal with the potential loss of revenue that ADAS technology brings because it’s coming?

Just sayin’.

 

Telling It Like It Is

After a 29-year career, Johnny Miller retired this past Saturday from his job as a golf analyst for NBC Sports and the Golf Channel. Before he took the role as an analyst sitting in broadcast booths located on the 18^th greens of golf tournaments, Johnny spent 28 years as a PGA golf pro. As a golf analyst, he was known for his blunt commentary of the play of professional golfers whom he critiqued. Johnny’s style was to never hold back on his opinions while offering positive or negative comments of a pros play. There were a number of pros who often didn’t appreciate Johnny’s comments on their play, but the television audience appreciated the honesty and teaching moments he provided to amateur golfers with his golf analysis. During Johnny’s career he covered 355 golf tournaments in 33 states and 14 countries around the world. Among those tournaments were 29 Players Championships, 20 U.S. Opens, 14 Ryder Cups, 9 Presidents Cups, 3 Opens (British Opens) and 1 World Olympic (Rio). I trust that Johnny will enjoy his retirement and hope that there is someone willing to step into his big shoes and continues telling it like it is.

In business, leaders should surround themselves with people like Johnny Miller who are unafraid to provide:

1. advice or critique of a potential strategy or tactic under consideration,
2. views on key promotions or new hires to supplement leadership teams,
3. opinions on the value of new products or suppliers and
4. views on potential acquisitions or divestitures being considered, just to name a few.

Those willing to be vocal and share their opinions even when they may not be appreciated are, in my view, one of the most important traits of your most valuable employees. Leaders should be able to surround themselves with those who are unafraid of telling it like it is. By the way, just because they share their views doesn’t mean that their ideas are correct and as a leader you have to follow them, but I would suggest you should still listen.

I’ve greatly valued, even more importantly highly respected, those that I worked with who readily offered their views of a strategy I wanted to follow as either a good, bad or how it could be improved upon. I would suggest that leaders recruit those willing to be like Johnny. So I’d like to say to those like Johnny in my career like Ernie, Charlie, Byron, Mark, John M., David (RIP), Larry, Kevin, Alan, Rick, Ronnie (RIP), Adrian, Louis, Sandy, Nate, Chuck, Jeff, Heather, Terry, Chris, Steve M., Bre, Darshan, Rodney, Warren, Rachel, Ros, Brendan, Robert and Steve K., thank you each very much. (There’s many, many more I could thank.)

Over the years many pros who initially were angered hearing Johnny’ negative televised critiques of their play later grew to appreciate and value his unvarnished reviews. To those whom I worked for who took my suggestions or comments poorly over the years I offer my apologies. But I hope you’ve grown to appreciate those telling it like it is that may surround you today. Leaders incapable of allowing direct reports who work for them that are willing to provide unvarnished advice or critique of critical decisions that are being considered aren’t, in my opinion, going to get the best from them. You might also be at risk losing them to a leader that actively seeks those willing to offer their views.

Just sayin’.

Silverado Country Club, Napa Valley, California

Ideas

In the highly charged political environment we live in today we see a growing division regarding differing ideas and views. I’m sure you’ve seen how new ideas or viewpoints offered by some aren’t really appreciated, acknowledged or even allowed when they differ (e.g. Kanye West / @KanyeWest) from what’s expected. There seems to be no room to find a middle ground any more; we’ve lost the ability to have civil and open debate of ideas. When you turn on cable news, read Twitter feeds and even when you have conversations with friends and relatives about countless topics, today’s vitriol has become pervasive. If you aren’t in lockstep with others you’re often castigated, ridiculed and left on the outside looking in. A form of groupthink. Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines groupthink as,

“a pattern of thought characterized by self-deception, forced manufacture of consent, and conformity to group values and ethics”

Historically in business most companies operated in a groupthink mode. Autocratic, dictatorial company owners or management with no interest in opposing views or new ideas. Perhaps you worked for a company like this during your career or maybe work for a company today that stifles new ideas? That style may have worked once upon a time, but not in today’s business environment.

Over a 10-year span beginning in 1990 I had the great fortune to work with a small, boutique consulting firm based in California while I was an executive at Belron International Ltd. Everyone I worked with at the consulting firm, from the principal to all the associates, brought tremendous value to company meetings they attended or facilitated. With their help teams openly discussed issues the business was facing, and we were encouraged to fully consider and debate all ideas to find the best way forward. The firm espoused that there were “No Bad Ideas (NBI)”. Out-of-the-box thinking. A key to using NBI is that it cultivated the opportunity for all participants to feel comfortable suggesting highly creative or unconventional ideas without the chance of being mocked by peers. When you remove the fear of being ridiculed for what might be viewed as a controversial idea in a meeting, you unlock infinite opportunities and options. It’s amazing to see what can be accomplished in an NBI environment. The firm provided tremendous value to me, as well as the companies I was responsible for managing.

While working at the company the Chairman, as well as the President/CEO of the organization (at that time) were both key influencers in my career. They used a similar concept to NBI in meetings. Everyone was encouraged to raise contrarian viewpoints to ensure that as many ideas as possible were raised and considered. When offering a contrarian or unconventional idea during meetings we were told to start with “I’m just practicing, but what if……”

Participants could raise ideas without fear, regardless of how outrageous the ideas may have been viewed, as all participants in the discussion were “just practicing”. The outcomes of meetings where we used just practicing always provided better options or alternatives to determine the best path forward for the company.

I’ve used NBI and just practicing with great success for almost 30 years in other organizations. I suggest leaders embrace NBI and just practicing within your teams to maximize opportunities for success. Respectful listening and learning never ends and any organization could benefit from using these techniques.

Just sayin’.

 

p.s. Today, all of those with whom I worked with at that consulting firm have gone their separate ways and each have had and continue to have amazing individual careers. So, thank you, Selwyn, John, David, Jim and Brian for NBI, along with the support you all provided. Thank you to Ronnie and John for just practicing.

Mentoring and Leadership

You may or have seen this short YouTube video (link below) titled:

“Steve Kerr Explains How Steph Curry Has Changed the League”

It is a great example of mentoring and leadership. The video shows a series of vignettes highlighting interactions between National Basketball Association (NBA) Head Coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors (also a former NBA player) and his remarkable NBA superstar player Steph Curry. The interactions between this great coach and player are amazing to watch.

There isn’t much you can add to the power of Steve Kerr’s words of encouragement to his superstar guard. You could argue that Steph Curry was destined for an amazing career in the NBA based on his natural talents and the very hard work he has put into ensuring that he is able to give his best every game, but Coach Kerr should be given credit for helping him achieve even more.

If you provide similar positive reinforcement like Steve Kerr with the people that work for you, imagine how great a company you will have. Of course, the reality is that not all managers or company owners are good mentors or leaders. Nor are all employees’ top performers. That doesn’t mean that you can’t spend time encouraging everyone to get the best that you can out of those that report to you or work for your company.

I’ve worked for good and bad bosses. I’m sure you have as well. The best one for me was unquestionably John Mason, the President and Chief Executive Officer at Belron from 1989 – 2000. The good ones tend to delegate authority ruthlessly with confidence. The bad ones? Well, Geoffrey James, a Contributing Editor for Inc. Magazine and Inc.com wrote a great article titled “5 Traits of a Micromanager (and How to Fix Them)”. Mr. James writes that those five traits are:

1. Measuring too many things.
2. Monitoring too closely.
3. Building too much consensus.
4. Intervening too much.
5. Setting too many priorities.

Hopefully those aren’t traits you possess if you’re a boss, but perhaps you recognize them as traits in your boss?

So, if you’re a leader and mentor I would strive to be like Steve Kerr. He has the qualities I would want to have.

Just sayin’.

Using Data as Actionable Information

Does your company provide customers with amazing reporting that presents them actionable or unique information derived from your analysis of their data? If you don’t you’re missing a great opportunity to highlight the value that your organization can bring by presenting data they either haven’t thought about or don’t access to help improve performance.

I received an email from Uber® that detailed my rides during the past year. Most of the information wasn’t actionable, but it was interesting. I learned that I traveled 285.25 miles via Uber® in 2017. I was labeled a “Weekday Warrior” suggesting that most of my rides took place between 6 a.m. – 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. – 6 p.m. on weekdays. Their take was I was using Uber® for rush hour, happy hour, heading to a morning meeting or a ride to the airport and they were right. I used Uber® in 11 different cities with the highest use in Boston. I don’t live in Boston, but they told me that most international air travel from Boston is to London. Who knew? I learned that I signed up for Uber® 1,396 days ago and my average rating of drivers was 4.82 out of 5. I guess I’ve been impressed with most of them.

Uber® also informed me that Los Angeles riders provide the highest satisfaction ratings for drivers across the World, Tampa uses Uber Eats® most often and that New York stands out as the city with the most late-night and weekend rides. Miami had the most mobile telephones that go MIA (pun intended) in an Uber®, the top tourist destination was The Eiffel Tower and Chinese is the most ordered food in the United States, Burritos in Asia and Europe, along with Tacos in Latin America via Uber Eats®.

Now I’m not sure that any of this information is meaningful or actionable for me, but when you provide your customers with unique information that you track which you believe is important and that could be useful to them in bettering their business you add value. Can you provide a unique perspective that shows the value that you bring? Adding value to your customer is a key component to finding success for your company. By differentiating your value proposition to your customers, you help separate your company from your competitors. So, if you’re not using data to provide your customers with information that can improve their business you’re missing out on a great opportunity to improve yours.

Here’s hoping your 2018 is a very successful one!!

Just sayin’.

 

Nationwide Windscreen Services – A Leader in Auto Glass Replacements of Vehicles with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)

If you’re in the automotive industry you’ll know that the complexities of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) technologies are being utilized on more and more Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) vehicles rolling off assembly lines around the globe. What does ADAS mean to drivers buying or leasing OEM vehicles? As an article published by the research and consulting firm McKinsey & Company titled “Advanced driver-assistance systems: Challenges and opportunities ahead” explains,

“Demand for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)—those that help with monitoring, warning, braking, and steering tasks—is expected to increase over the next decade, fuelled largely by regulatory and consumer interest in safety applications that protect drivers and reduce accidents. For instance, both the European Union and the United States are mandating that all vehicles be equipped with autonomous emergency-braking systems and forward-collision warning systems by 2020. A recent McKinsey survey also suggests that car buyers are becoming even more interested in ADAS applications that promote comfort and economy, such as those that assist with parking or monitoring blind spots.”

Another article titled “Driver Assistance System Market to Grow..” that appeared in the online Digital Journal stated,

“Increasing government regulations such as mandating usage of driver assistance systems in the vehicle and emerging high-end vehicles market in developing countries has an important quotient in the growth of driver assistance system market. In the coming years, it is expected that the driver assistance system market will advance with higher growth rate as compared to previous years. The current challenges for the market are training the professionals on the software due to its complex and expensive features. Therefore, steadily changing process of manual workflow to digital workflow, will result in long-term benefit when the advance features of driver assistance system services are implemented and would be used on regular basis by various industries.”

Consumers buying vehicles with this technology onboard, who will require aftermarket services that could alter the original calibration of ADAS technology, will need to be aware of the importance of choosing service companies that are not only knowledgeable on these safety systems, but that also have service technicians equipped and proficient on the use of all required tools to ensure that the ADAS technology works properly. It’s critical that OEM car manufacturers, companies developing ADAS technology, governments, along with a myriad of automotive aftermarket service industries work together to ensure consumers are kept safe.

One aftermarket service organization in the auto glass repair and replacement (AGRR) industry in the United Kingdom is a leader in ensuring consumer safety. That company is Nationwide Windscreen Services (NWS). NWS began in 2006 and in just over a decade they have 70+ locations that provide auto glass repair and replacements, with 500+ mobile fitting vans and 600+ staff offering a 24/7/365 call center operation and service coverage to insurance, fleet and consumers across the United Kingdom.

NWS has taken dramatic steps to ensure that the replacements they do are done properly. On August 1, 2015, NWS opened its first ADAS center in Leicester, England, and Stuart Sole, Managing Director of NWS said:

“The windscreen of the future will no longer be a piece of glass protecting occupants from the elements and offering structural support for the vehicle, safety systems are being developed with driver aids to help avoid collisions and accidents. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems technology will manage the cruise control, automotive braking, adaptive lighting, GPS, smart phone, lane departure warning cameras, collision avoidance system. This technology continues to influence vehicle design at a great pace, with more and more of these systems being introduced onto new vehicles. NWS will continue to invest in future technology within the automotive glazing industry; ensuring that the NWS customer base continues to receive a market leading product in all areas of our business.”

Since opening their first ADAS service center in 2015, NWS has invested more than £ 300,000 (US$ 380,000 prox) to ensure that NWS provides proper calibration when required on replacements that have ADAS technology. Today NWS is fully capable of providing recalibration for replacements which require this service across their platform. NWS has been awarded the Lloyd’s Register Quality Assurance ISO 9001 for their processes.

I asked Philip Homer, Operations Director at Nationwide Windscreen Services, who has responsibility for developing the service delivery model at the company to answer a few questions regarding the commitment to the safety of their customers at the time of replacement and when recalibration is required:

1. You’ve made a huge commitment to safety in time and treasure to ensure that you provide a complete drive-away solution when you complete a replacement for customers whose vehicles have ADAS technology. What drove you to decide to provide a solution internally versus utilizing the OEM dealer network after you replaced a glass where ADAS was involved?

Answer: A one stop solution for the driver and vehicle down time, standardised pricing throughout the United Kingdom. Assurance for fleet and insurers that the vehicle has been calibrated following a replacement.

2. I’m sure that you spent a great deal of time researching the best solution for your customers. What is the name of the recalibration system that you chose and what were the main reasons you chose their equipment?

Answer: Hella Gutman – We feel their system is the most practical available at present providing a solution for static or dynamic calibration. The equipment also prints off a certificate to confirm a successful calibration.

Hella also provide training for our technicians at their facility in Banbury Oxfordshire, once completed the technician is also issued with a certificate to confirm that they have attended a training session and competent in how to use the equipment.

3. Are you able to complete recalibration with the Hella Gutmann equipment that you’ve chosen on all vehicles in your marketplace?

Answer: Approximately 75% of vehicles requiring some attention can be calibrated using the equipment we use.

4. Within the United Kingdom are there AGRR installation and/or automotive recalibration standards that have been determined and approved by a governing body that your company follows?

Answer: We are not associated to any governing body but do feel we have considerable experience in the field as we were the first to market in the UK.

5. You’ve received the Lloyd’s Register Quality Assurance ISO9001 rating. What does this mean to your company and staff?

 Answer: We have been accredited by Lloyds QA for over five years and our team are very proud of this accreditation. We are currently working towards ISO9001 // 2015.

6. Do you provide recalibration services at each of your centers? Do you also provide the service on a mobile basis?

Answer: We currently have twenty sites across the UK and during 2017-2018 we are planning additional sites in strategic locations

7. What is the time required for completing recalibration – shortest, longest and average?

Answer: Approximately forty-five minutes for static or dynamic calibration.

8. Do you charge customers for recalibration? How much do you charge for a recalibration? Are you able to bill insurance and fleet customers for this service or do the customers pay for the recalibration directly?

Answer: Our standard price is in the region of £130.00 (US$ 165.00 prox) plus vat. We have a number of billing routes into insurance or fleet customers

9. When you complete a recalibration is it always 100% effective? How do you know that a proper recalibration has been completed?

Answer: We have had a small number of unsuccessful calibration. This has been largely down to the relevant software release. In the event that we are unable to recalibrate we would advise the driver to take their vehicle to a franchised OEM dealership.

10. NWS is committed to providing this service to your customers. For those companies in other parts of the world who are interested in providing a similar service to their customers and wonder what the return-on-investment is, can you tell me how long will it take you to get a return on your investment?

Answer: Provided you have access to the vehicle park you should have no problem in obtaining an ROI in under 12 months.

11. Do you provide this service for other AGRR companies that you compete with or does NWS make the service available solely to your customers?

Answer: This is under discussion now as we feel if has further potential.

12. ADAS has been called an interim technology. Do you feel this is the case and, if so, what do you think will replace it?

Answer: We have been informed that the technology is at stage three and the vehicle manufacturers or those providing the equipment are aiming for fully autonomous vehicles which would be stage five.

13. How have you been able to determine which makes and models require recalibration?

Answer: Manufacturers with an ADAS enabled windscreen, but on several occasions they aren’t activated or the camera mounting has been blanked off. We feel that the best identification point is by the technician during installation

14. How do you handle makes/models where the vehicle owner is instructed to only use the OEM car dealership for calibration?

Answer: We have a robust process in place to organise any calibration should we need to use a franchised dealership. However, we would always recommend a calibration to be carried out during the glass installation to avoid any inconvenience to the driver.

15. How knowledgeable do you find consumers are about ADAS and the need for recalibration?

Answer: Their understanding is gaining momentum largely due to the vehicle manufacturer selling the driver aid technology as a safety feature

16. How have you educated your insurance and fleet customers, as well as consumers of the importance of proper recalibration of ADAS after you’ve completed a replacement?

Answer: Yes, we feel have taken an active role in educating the insurance and fleet sectors. We have presented to number of customers and a “best practice” session at the 2016 Fleet Management Live event at NEC in Birmingham.

17. Are there any learnings from your experience with providing a complete ADAS solution to your customers in the United Kingdom that you can share with other auto glass companies interested in recalibration systems?

Answer: Good technical support is the key to successful calibration in the initial stages of use.

Thank you for taking the time to answer the questions that I’ve asked today Philip. The commitment that Nationwide Windscreen Services has made to customers they serve is highly commendable and provides a roadmap to AGRR companies that are looking to provide an ADAS solution for vehicles with this technology that requires recalibration after the installation. The commitment that NWS has made in investing in calibration equipment, employee training and facilities allowing the company to deliver a complete ADAS solution to is highly commendable and delivers a strong statement that safety is paramount to their customers. Congratulations to you and your company for being a leader in the industry.

As more and more OEM vehicles have ADAS technology onboard we need to ensure that aftermarket automotive companies are fully prepared to properly recalibrate vehicles they service if recalibration is required. The consequences could be life or death for consumers when an automotive aftermarket company provides service and doesn’t recalibrate the vehicle when required. Is your company taking the proper steps to ensure that you’re fully prepared?

Just sayin’.

 

20 Years Ago

Twenty years ago today the United States subsidiary of Belron International Ltd. (Belron) operating under the trade name of Windshields America (WA) merged with Joe Kellman’s U.S. Auto Glass (USAG)/Globe Glass & Mirror (GG&M) companies to form a company named Vistar. The second and third largest automotive glass repair and replacement (AGRR) businesses merged on February 26, 1996. If memory serves me WA had 274 stores in 43 states and the retail arm of Kellman’s two companies, GG&M had approximately 200+ locations in maybe 20+ states. USAG was the network call center arm of the business covering all 50 states. The merger provided Belron with a majority shareholding in Vistar, but management control fell to USAG/GGA. WA had annualized sales at the time of approximately $ 225,000,000+ and USAG/GG&A had annualized sales were approximately $ 200,000,000+ so as one sales totaled $ 425,000,000+ with approximately 500 store locations.

At the same time Safelite Auto Glass (SAG) was the largest AGRR company in the United States both in the number of stores and total sales. SAG had well over 500 stores and sales of approximately $ 500,000,000+. So if you had been able to combine the largest AGRR company together with the second and third largest AGRR company’s sales would have been over approximately $ 925,000,000 in 1996. A very tidy sum by anyone’s measure. The race was on two determine who could become the true market leader in the United States AGRR industry.

Lo and behold just two and one half years later on December 17, 1997 the shareholders of Vistar and SAG decided that they could achieve their market goals better together than apart so they agreed to merge. SAG at the time was owned by the Boston based private equity firm Thomas H. Lee Partners. When the merger took place Belron received the largest shareholding followed by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Joe Kellman. After the merger Vistar was absorbed by SAG with SAG and Thomas H. Lee Partners holding management control.

As you would expect, when in just 1 year 9 months 21 days the three leading companies in any industry merge, attempting to bring together three distinctly different cultures would be a big challenge. Especially when the largest and smallest shareholders of the new SAG didn’t have management control even though they had considerably more experience in operating AGRR companies than the shareholder with control. I’m not going to delve deeply into what happened next, but the newly formed company lasted just 2 years 5 months 23 days before heading into bankruptcy via a Security and Exchange Commission filing on June 9, 2000. As reported at the time a SAG spokesperson said,

“In papers filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware Friday, Safelite, based in Columbus, Ohio — with 500 U.S. locations — listed $ 559.2 million in assets and $ 591.4 million in debts. A spokeswoman for closely held Safelite, Dee Uttermohlen, said the Chapter 11 filing was related to a debt-load from an acquisition three years ago–but added that the company has been renegotiating debt with creditors.”1

So with that bit of historical background of the two mergers that took place in 1996 and 1997, along with the fallout from those mergers with the subsequent bankruptcy in 2000; I read with interest the 2015 financial results released by Belgium based D’Iteren n.v., majority shareholder of Belron International (and its subsidiary SAG). SAG’s 2015 sales, as per a SAG press release from February 3, 2016 (follow link), are $ 1,500,000,000 ($ 1.5 BILLION). That certainly sounds like a lot of sales doesn’t it?

Looking back to the total sales of WA plus USAG/GGA plus SAG in 1996 ($ 925,000,000+) and reading the sales that was reported today for SAG (remembering that the company now comprises WA, USAG/GGA and SAG) I found it surprising. Very surprising. DollarTimes.com calculates the value of a dollar in one year and adds the cost of inflation to determine that value to today’s dollar. Using the DollarTimes calculator you will find that $ 1.00 in 1996 would equate to a value of $ 1.54 today. The site shows an annual inflation of 2.18% or a total inflation of 54.09% over the past 20 years. When you calculate the 1996 value of $ 925,000,000, today’s value is worth $ 1,425,313,518. So when you look at SAG’s reported 2015 sales against the 1996 sales you see a real growth of 5.24%.

 

There has certainly been a lot that has happened in the AGRR industry in the United States over the past 20 years. While SAG has faced a number of challenges over the past 20 years they have always come out somewhat unscathed. Bankruptcy, legislative issues, what have you they seem to always come out on top. But in real dollar growth they’ve seen a 5.24% increase in sales. Seems small doesn’t it?

But arguably there is a problem if you only look at the growth in sales dollars over the past 20 years. Sales figures really don’t take into consideration calculating the effect of the large increase in windshield repairs that existed in 1996 versus today. Nor does it take into consideration the price compression that was wrought on the industry in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s by the insurance industry. Determining what those two factors have in the calculation of real sales growth is difficult as it requires you to look at both the industry’s and SAG’s 1996 mix of products sales and customer versus that mix today. SAG and Belron unquestionably know what those factors mean to the performance of the company, but I’ll leave that for speculation and debate by you.

In my looking back over the past 20 years I’m taking a positive spin as you can see that today there are competitors both old and new that are busy chasing SAG. Be they local, statewide, regional or national competitors; there are countless companies working hard to take on SAG and its position in the AGRR space. There are AGRR retailers, alliances, networks, collision and glass companies, internet platforms chasing after consumers, insurers and commercial customers alike that need the services that the AGRR industry provides. Competition abounds and although it is always difficult to take the throne from the market leader, you’ve got to continue to try at the local, statewide, regional or national level if you want your company to find success in the industry with you’ve chosen to compete.

So when you look back 20 years ago to today at the AGRR industry and at what the landscape was like then versus what it is like today, what comes to my mind is a joke about a pony attributed to President Ronald Reagan.

“Worried that their son was too optimistic, the parents of a little boy took him to a psychiatrist. Trying to dampen the boy’s spirits, the psychiatrist showed him into a room piled high with nothing but horse manure. Yet instead of displaying distaste, the little boy clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to all fours, and began digging. ‘What do you think you’re doing?’ the psychiatrist asked. ‘With all this manure,’ the little boy replied, beaming, ‘there must be a pony in here somewhere.'”

I admit that I’m an eternal optimistic and I always see the pony in the room, but I think that opportunities abound for those who want to take on any leader in any industry. Never give up. Never.
Just sayin’.

 

1. Desert News article titled “Safelite Glass files for bankruptcy after listing $591 million in debts”

2. http://www.tomfishburne.com / http://www.marketcartoonist.com