Posts Tagged GasBuddy.com

Just Sayin’ Blog – Wind at Our Backs? – Part II

As 2013 comes to a close I thought I’d take a quick look back at a blog I wrote in September titled Wind at Our Backs? I suggested that “it appears that we may have some wind at our back.” The wind was related to the three key drivers of the automotive glass repair and replacement (AGRR) industry: weather, the economy and miles driven.

The Weather – I wrote that The Old Farmer’s Almanac has a pretty good record at forecasting winter weather. For the 2013 – 2014 winter season, the magazine forecasted that we would be experiencing colder weather and snowfall in many sections of the country. When you take a look at the past month the forecast seems to be a good one. I live in Chicago we’ve seen January and February cold in December already. And we’ve had snow too. If you believe that cold, ice and snow are good for the AGRR industry and you live in markets that experience them, the start of winter in many areas has been good. The map below shows the snow cover in the United States as of today.

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Let’s keep hoping for cold, ice and snow for the rest of winter 2013-2014.

The Economy – Economic news continues to be positive with the United States Department of Labor – Employment Situation Summary reported that unemployment rate declined in November to 7.0% from October’s 7.3%. The major U.S. Indexes have soared to new highs the past month, but as someone I know always says “so far things are going well today, but it’s early”.

The Los Angeles Times reported in an article this week titled “U.S. economic recovery is expected to gain strength in 2014” stated, “The nation’s economic outlook has vastly improved in recent weeks with signs of stronger job growth, bigger gains in personal incomes and an improving housing market.” The article pointed out that the economic outlook for the country has improved sharply and that consumer buying is influencing businesses to hire which means that confidence in the both the long and short-term economy.

The positive economic outlook is reported at a national level but what really matters is how are things going in the market or markets you compete. I hope things are going well in the markets in which you compete.

Miles driven – On a trailing twelve months ending September 2013 the U.S. Department of Transportation–Federal Highway Administration (FHA) reports that travel overall was up 1.5% or 3.7 billion vehicle miles versus September 2012. For all of 2013 versus 2012 miles driven is up 0.4%. The only area of the country not reporting an increase year-on-year was the West with a 0.2% drop. The South-Atlantic and the South-Gulf regions both reported a 2.4% increase, along with a 2.0% increase in the North-Central and the North-East a 1.0% increase. Overall miles have increased 9.8 billion miles driven so far in 2013. The September 2013 Travel Monitoring and Traffic Volume report was good news for the AGRR industry.

An improving economy is helping to fuel this increase in miles driven, but so is the drop in the cost of oil. The graph below shows the rise and fall of gasoline prices during 2013 and as you can see prices are trending lower.

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Lower gasoline prices are obviously positive for your business and its helping to increase miles driven by consumers. Let’s hope that 2014 continues this trend.

As reported in an article titled “U.S. roads, bridges are decaying despite stimulus influx” that appeared in the USA Today earlier this year, “Indeed, just 38% of the pavement on roads stretching miles across the USA is in “good” condition…” Bad roads are good for the AGRR industry and as the article points out, “The cumulative cost of these tattered roads isn’t just about dollars and cents. Though poor pavement conditions do cost consumers billions annually in vehicle repair…” With government budgets tight both at a national and state level we’re probably not going to be seeing much money spent on fixing roads and the money that is spent will probably be short-term.

The three key drivers appear positive at the moment. You can probably argue that there are other key drivers in your business today such as the competitors you face in a market. As I’ve mentioned before I believe that you are the key driver in your business. You and the people you surround yourself. Taking advantage of opportunities in the marketplace the best you can as they come up will make the difference in how 2014 starts for you in your business. In talking with a number of people I know in the industry 2013 and the past few years have been tough.

With the three key drivers turning positive as we close 2013 and if you agree that the wind is at your back, what are you going to do in the next year to make your business stand out and drive success?

I hope that you have a Happy Holiday and that the New Year will most definitely be a very good year.

Just sayin’.

 

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Just Sayin’ Blog – Hopes for the New Year (Fall Update)

We are now in the last quarter of the year; so how has 2012 been for you so far? In the first month of this year I posted a blog titled ‘Hopes for the New Year’ and then wrote a spring and summer update to that posting. When you take a look back over the past 9 months pretty much all the hopes for 2012 I had have fallen short.

The first hope was that:

“Our industry is affected by three key business drivers:  weather, the economy and miles driven. Sadly we have no control or influence over any of these so I’m hoping for some luck for 2012.”

The weather this year hasn’t been very cooperative for the automotive glass repair and replacement (AGRR) industry. We started with a snowless winter in most of the northern states and as reported by HailReporter.com we’ve experienced about 2/3 of the hail storms that we had in 2011. You know that snow, ice and hail all are big influencers to auto glass breakage and all were busts (pun intended) this year.

Early in the year many experts forecasted the economy would be anemic. Most of those forecasts were accurate. Kiplinger.com provides a variety of information on financial advice and business forecasts via its Economic Outlook section of the website which they regularly update with current outlooks. As of September 27, 2012 Kiplinger reported that:

“The stubbornly tepid economy will persist for the rest of this year and next.”

“It’s clear now that job creation will continue at a sluggish pace in the second half of 2012.”

“The U.S. is likely to add fewer jobs this year than last — about 1.6 million, compared with 1.8 million in 2011.”

“Instead of lending, banks remain wary.”

“Higher gasoline prices pushed inflation in August to an annualized rate of over 7%.”

“Business managers will remain very cautious about expansion at least into the early half of 2013.”

Expect the recent roller coaster in oil prices to keep on going a while longer.”

“Rising prices of fuel and other goods pose a risk to the increased growth rate, even as consumers shrug off anemic job growth and continue to spend.

Not very positive views from Kiplinger’s relating to another key influencer – the economy – to the AGRR industry.

Miles driven had been trending upward this year, but with rising gasoline prices the Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission reports that as of July 2012 miles driven starting heading lower again. Earlier this year many forecasted that 2012 would not be a good year for gasoline prices and it appears that the forecasts were fairly accurate. This is the time of year when historically prices decline, but even though the price of oil has moderated; issues with a number of gasoline refineries across the country has caused prices to go higher as reported by a GasBuddy.com blog. The AGRR industry would like to see miles driven go back to the peak levels of seen in 2007 – 2008 for this key influencer.

The second hope was that someone becomes a market leader for the AGRR industry. I’m not holding my breath, but I’m still hoping for that one. My third hope was for fewer imported (non OEM) auto glass parts in 2012 so that prices might be able to stabilize. There may be fewer imports this year, but that’s only because the overall market size is down. The fourth hope was that every windshield be installed according to the Auto Glass Replacement Safety Standard – AGRSS®. It’s the right thing to do for your customers.

 

The fifth and final hope was that somebody would step up and compete against Safelite® at the both the retail and network level. It was a tall order considering the extremely envious dominant position that it enjoys with its strong retail and network. It’s not as though there aren’t individuals or companies at all levels of the AGRR industry with the unrelenting goal (and hope) of providing consumers with an alternative. At some point you have to believe that insurers and fleets might become wary of the tremendous influence the market leader has achieved with its dominant market position. It’s hard for me to see how Safelite® could maintain its market position or really grow its market share larger long-term. Unless they are willing to restart its acquisition program or maintain the onslaught of media advertising over the long-haul it’s going to be tough for Safelite® to move its sales upward in a meaningful way. Time is running out this year, but who knows what the New Year will bring.

 

Here’s hoping that in the last three months of 2012 you’re seeing positive signs pointing to improvement in your business or at the place that you’re working.

Just sayin’……….

 

 

Cartoon courtesy of Tom Fishburne

 

 

 

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